Windows Vs. The Web (and Linux, OSX, Java and Apollo Too)
Monday, April 09, 2007
One of my online heroes, Paul Graham, is getting a lot of attention this week by predicting the death of Microsoft. It was a grandstanding headline, and Paul does reposition the story to making Microsoft simply less dangerous, the way IBM is less dangerous today than it was up to and through the 80's. He says Google is the one to look out for.
And right on cue, BusinessWeek's story is about Google-noia. And Google releases their own 1-800-GOOG-411 service, as if to state "yeah, we're testing the Starship Enterprise voice recognition user interface, predicted by Google engineer, Craig Silverman at Search Engine Strategies of years past (before he was predicting smart yeast). In addition to an advertising-offset delivery platform (the Google phone or GooglePod), voice recognition is what makes Google truly ubiquitous.
But instead of a Google rant, I think I want to linger on the death of the desktop question for a moment. Of course, Microsoft is not dead. I had earlier made this article about Sun's vision of the network being the computer finally arriving. But the point is repeatedly made around the Internet that until Web software works as well as desktop software, the desktop is still king. But then Adobe came out with Apollo. And it's no longer a matter of capability. It's a matter of consolidating an anti-Microsoft camp with sufficient momentum to make a difference.
And as an XP user at the office, and Vista AND OSX user at home, and occasional tester of Linux distributions on VMWare, I've got a pretty good perspective on OSes. Not to mention I was a Mac user since Drexel University was the first school ever to require computers, and have been an Amiga user since 1987. I KNOW what a cool platform feels like.
And the Web ain't it... yet.
Software running in an API closely coupled with the capabilities of the hardware is always the coolest feeling software. And so far in my experience, software written in languages like C++ are by far the snappiest and most fun to use. That's what PhotoShop was, and Amiga software like Deluxe Paint. Java, even with the Swing UI, doesn't even come close. That's that feeling you get in LimeWire and Azureus, where things just don't feel right. That's why Adobe's demo of PhotoShop running on Apollo was such a big deal. Web-based AJAX apps like Yahoo Mail run a distant third.
And it's the Geoffrey Moore technology adoption curve that dictates that until things become significantly better, and acquire enough un-fragmented users in the early mainstream, the desktop as we know it has A LOT of like left in it.
It would take something VERY disruptive to change that.
Like Nick Negroponte's One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) initiative brought to the masses.
Or a tablet PC delivered to everyone's door by Google.
Or Cable companies adopting a REAL program platform for their set top boxes.
It would have to be deployed in a massive way, disrupting all the financial incentives to keep things working the way they are. Making the move off the desktop will have to be easier AND cheaper than a home PC upgrade.
Because despite the obvious dominance of the Web, people love their home PCs. And they hardly know the difference between running a Web app and a desktop app anymore. Desktop Widgets and Gadgets are further blurring the line. And PCs are still just vastly cheaper than Macs. And as a daily user of OSX and Vista, OSX really isn't as much better as all the Mac people say. It's downright flakey when it comes to multi-tasking. Us old Amiga folks know what real multi-tasking is, and today's PC is it. Macs just sort of stick.
So think about what happens when Microsoft makes all the same clever decisions as Google, to release their own uber-cheap advertising-subsidized ubiquitous voice-recognition tablet PC that connects on-the-fly to keyboards and printers, offers coupons, and lets you rent software for whatever ails you, protecting your documents for a lifetime and beyond, using Web Services.
Microsoft is still on much more equal footing that some people think. While yes, PCs are starting to feel a bit like your Grannie's PC, like Paul Graham says, all those baby boomers are about to become Grannies.Labels: Adobe Apollo, Google, Java, Linux, Microsoft, OSX, Paul Graham, Sun, Web 2.0
posted by Mike Levin
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